(I originally wrote about this to my counselor over a year ago, before I was even 14. I've rewritten a few bits and added more content to sound more dated to my current writing style or not to reference my counselor. Speaking of which, if my counselor is reading this, hello!)
Welcome to the first episode of Aliology! I called it "Aliology" because I just combined my last name with an "-ology". In Aliology posts, I just ramble honestly about mental health, sociology, school, stuff like that. I began Aliology as emails to my 8th grade counselor, who I still keep in contact with. I figured it would be fitting if the first ever email I branded under "Aliology" was also my first Aliology blog post.
[Please keep in mind I'm not a psychologist. In fact I can't even trust myself writing this.]
What is An Assumption Bias?
Now, we all know what "assumption" is- thinking of an inference based on something you already know. For example, I'm going to assume the person reading this is one of my friends, because I sent this blog to mainly my friends. However, I don't actually know WHO is reading this right now. For all I know a toddler or grandmother could be reading this. That's why it's an assumption; I don't have the true facts behind it, just my intuition. Once I have more facts behind my assumption, it could become validated. For example, I can definitely prove whoever is reading this is probably a human being, because I have human friends. Except Georgie the giraffe. He's a stuffed animal.
However, we're still just making assumptions- what this is really about is "assumption bias" as I call it. *ahem*
Assumption bias is just when you jump to the most reasonable conclusion about something, often without thinking about it. Needless to say, assumption bias can be problematic, as we'll see. But first, we need an example. Let's start with this genius comedic example:
I fell, and there's a banana peel on my hand.
"Oh, so you slipped on a banana peel!"
Actually, I tripped over a raccoon who was stealing my banana. See? The assumption was that I'm really clumsy and don't look where I'm going (which is true), but there was a bias because of the information you were given.
Ok, maybe not the best start, so here's a more realistic example you might see in real life.
"A student is doing poorly in school, often getting Ds and Cs. What is happening?"
You may have thoughts like:
1. He's lazy and doesn't do work.
2. He doesn't understand the material.
3. He's discouraged by peers.
4. He's struggling with something not school-related.
And infinitely more! All of which are assumptions. The one you thought FIRST about the situation is the assumption bias; it shows what you think first based off your previous experiences. Which one did you think first? Personally, I'd think the 1st one.
The thing about assumption bias is that it's birthed because we lack details. Our minds have to fill in the gaps to predict what's happening. If we have more information, our assumptions can become presumptions. Here's contexts added that could support all of the ideas:
1. He often slacks off in class and plays video games all day.
2. He has dyslexia and gets frustrated with reading.
3. His peers are risky and bad influences who bring him into schemes.
4. His parents are getting a divorce and fighting over custody.
With these contexts, our assumptions are made more factual, and almost valid at that point. Unfortunately, in real life, the information we get will often be scarce, which is what leads us to make an assumption. Different people will have different perspectives on the same situation. A teacher might think of the 2nd one as an option, a parent might think of the 3rd option, and a therapist may think of the 4th option. So everyone has differing opinions but no real answer.
And you KNOW how people can get when we don't agree...*shivers in Twitter*
The Problem & Consequences
That's where assumption bias actually becomes a problem- it's ok to have assumptions, and we all naturally will be biased from time to time. It's practically in our blood. What's important however is NOT treating assumptions as facts and following through with them. Because assumptions are OPINIONS. In order to treat an assumption as a fact, you need to- well, you need to prove it, obviously.
Here's another, much harder example: What do you assume about a child who is obese? Well, your first conclusion is pretty obvious: a child who is obese likely eats too much food or doesn't get enough exercise.
However, with questions like this, there's SUB questions that can occur. Like, "Who is causing this child to be obese?" is a harder question to answer. Here's the assumptions even popular people come to:
1. It's the company's fault for supporting junk food to children.
2. It's the child's responsibility for eating too much and not exercising enough.
3. It's the parent's responsibility for letting their child get obese.
4. It's the school's fault for their high calorie lunches and breakfasts.
Now, the difference is that this is a much higher scale problem to analyze, as it focuses on whole groups of people instead of just individuals. So, it's harder to identify the solution, or if there's a solution at all. In fact, you might argue the answer is that EVERYONE is at fault here. I mean, it's what I'm saying.
Assumption bias generally results from what we've heard before. Like, maybe as you were growing up, you saw children constantly cry over not getting toys or treats at the store. So now, if you see a child throwing a tantrum anywhere, you automatically assume they're a brat. But maybe they're not. Maybe they're neurodivergent and happen to be really sensitive to unfamiliar scenarios. And when you make those assumptions, it can distort your view of the world.
Bias can lead to propaganda, and propaganda will lead to bias. It's a vicious cycle, and often bias can lead to poor conclusions or actions. Take the Holocaust- because of Germany's struggling economy, Hitler blamed the Jews, which was an assumption bias, and that assumption bias turned into propaganda that demonized the Jews, which caused more bias, and eventually led to the infamous GENOCIDE of Jews all over.
I have some personal stories of my own as well! Like, I have this online friend, who, I won't reveal their names to respect privacy, but I remember back in 2023 they were constantly inactive and unmotivated. And for some reason I was mad at them. Then guess what I realized later on? They were grounded for a very long time, their brother mocks his drawings, and their mom is overbearing. I had to omit some details in case they happened to read this in future. Yet here I was, being unappreciative, disrespecting boundaries like cell membranes. My assumption was that he was just lazy, because I had a bias of that being why I couldn't do things. I've apologized, don't worry.
Another story I specifically remember was back in 2022, when I heard some drama between a group of friends and a Discord server. We'll use the names...Zangler and Tiger to describe it. It's based on their usernames. Basically, I think, someone screenshot an excerpt from Tiger and in it, he criticized Zangler. In the beginning only however. But because that studio was full of useless mods, they didn't read through or think about the situation, then began raiding Tiger's profile. Except I'm calling the kettle black, because guess what? SO DID I. Punch me. But ironically, guess who it was who DID bother to read through the messages and found out the mistake they made? ME. I read through and realized the full context, and made an announcement to everyone about it. So yeah...not one of my proudest moments. (Then again, the entirety of 6th grade was not one of my proudest moments.) My assumption was that someone was wrong, because my bias was that everyone else was doing it.
Overview
So, assumption bias is problematic. The main way of dealing with it? Simple. Don't treat your opinions as facts before you verify them. Look into everything carefully, and accept other people's thoughts.
Before we end, I want you to think about your assumption bias. Here's a quick test: tell me what you first think when you read these scenarios.
- A woman gets kicked out of her parent's house.
- An old man tries to rob someone.
- A young woman refuses to eat vegetables.
- A teenager always seems taciturn and forlorn.
Now here's those scenarios, but with CONTEXT:
- The woman is 35 years old, and is toxic to her family members.
- The old man is homeless, and the person he tried to rob did a cruel prank on him.
- The young woman was fed processed foods for most of her childhood.
- The teen just struggles with social skills, he's much more energetic by himself.
What did you assume, and how biased was it?
See you another day, everyone!
- A.A, 2025
#aliology #assumptionbias
